Walk south but carry a big stick?

Since I centered my attention on Ecuador I have participated in an expat blog (http://www.expatexchange.com/). Its regulars are expats of long standing in Ecuador. It gets lots of traffic from people about to go there or thinking about it. I was one of the latter but now I've bought the tickets ($724, Maine to Quito R/T) so it's serious. The forum is a skewed sample as just about all samples are. The most popular theme seems to be fear. Close behind that is money, then climate.

So the forum tends to fear (of crime), Money (cost of living) and climate (personal taste). If you don't factor in this "skew", this bias (overwhelmingly fear) you will get a inaccurate picture. Every view is subjective. So every answer and question is as well. Objective truth (surprise!) is not to be found. Everyone has an angle, contrived or innate. Sometimes it's commercial, nothing wrong with that. Usually it's to shore up a personal world view. The world (Ecuador) is out to get me or the world loves me. You can prove either view (to yourself anyway). But anyone bearing "Truth" somehow needs to convince others (like the truth can't stand alone?). The ones who think the world is out to get them show up briefly, feeling exposed maybe?. Those who are living this dream or those wanting to stay around.

The regulars will tell stories collected over the years of bad things that happened to tourists and other foreigners. They relate personal experience, crimes that were committed against them. Some strive to educate the new wannabe expat with these stories. Others argue that in their decades of experience they have never been afraid. Proponents of both these views advise caution and common sense. Paradise is apparently not to be found on Earth, in either hemisphere.

A statistical analysis (dubious because of data quality) seems to suggest that on average you will be just as safe in Ecuador as in the USA. "on average" covers a huge area.... big city or rural area?, do you fit in or stand out?, have you street savvy or are you clueless? In Maine the tourists are culturally clueless and to them I don't stand out. To the Mainers I am clearly from "away". In Ecuador I will be as inconspicuous as an elephant in a flea circus. So I will need to ramp up my situational awareness and work at reading the people around me. I think these skills have atrophied over the years. And then there is good luck. For that I'm thinking of a good luck charm. A walking stick maybe, with a really hard handle and a lanyard. Think of a traveling Buddhist monk or Little John, peaceable but ready. We shall see.